Half Bitcoin Trades are Fake?

There have been suspicions for a while that the markets are overinflated. In fact, fears of market manipulation have held up regulatory approval for a number of proposed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), frustrating many enthusiasts who believe that the eventual approval of ETFs will spur broader adoption of the technology by investors. 一直以来, 比特币市场的泡沫化备受质疑. 实际上, 对于比特币市场操控的恐惧已经使得大量比特币交易基金(ETF)的监管更加严苛, 令众多对相信ETF的最终实现会加大投资者对科技的投入的乐观主义者倍感沮丧. Now, in a twist, a company hoping to list an ETF has reported to US financial regulators that around 95% of all Bitcoin trading volume has been faked by exchanges. 如今, 另一方面, 有对某ETF了解的公司向美国金融监管部门报道称, 大约95%的比特币交易量都存在做假. Bitwise, a crypto-asset management firm, analyzed 81 exchanges, finding that 71 of them exhibited patterns that reflected artificial trading volume. One way to manufacture volume is via a technique called wash trading, in which someone simultaneously buys and sells the same asset. Although the exchanges in the study reported a combined $6 billion in daily volume during four days this month, Bitwise determined that only $273 million of it was real. Bitwise, 作为一家数字货币资产管理公司, 在研究了81家交易所后发现, 其中71家都存在人造交易数据的痕迹. 其中有一种常见的交易是采用一种叫"冲洗交易" (Wash trading) 的技术手段, 它可以帮助人实时买卖相同的资产. 尽管报告显示在过去一个月的四天中每天的交易额在60亿美金, 但Bitwise只能确定其中只有2亿7千万是真实的. Bitwise’s global head of research, Matthew Hougan, told the Wall Street Journal that the point of submitting the analysis was to show regulators that “a real market for Bitcoin” still exists despite the storm of artificial trading. Solid evidence for this comes from the small number of exchanges that can actually verify that their trading data is real, he said. If approved, Bitwise’s fund would be based on the volume on those exchanges, which represents only around 5% of the generally reported total. Bitwise的全球研究部长Mattew Hougang告知华尔街时报, 递交此份分析是在于向监管者展示"一个真实的比特币市场"依然存在, 即使正处于人造交易的暴风雨中, 而诸多真实的小交易所无疑是有效的证明. 如果获批, Bitwise的基于这些真实交易的基金, 大概只占比报道总量的5%. Why would exchanges dishonestly inflate their volumes? One incentive may be to attract ICO (initial coin offering) projects that want to be listed on exchanges that are facilitating lots of trading. To list such projects, some exchanges charge fees that can be as high as a few million dollars. 所以, 为什么交易所需要虚假夸大其交易量呢? 其中一个诱因便是吸引数字货币首次公开募资(ICO)项目在该交易所进行交易. 而上线此类项目, 有些交易所可以要价高达几百万美元. There are at least two important takeaways here. First, the real Bitcoin trading market is an order of magnitude smaller than is broadly reported. If you are eager to see mainstream adoption, perhaps that’s disappointing. On the flip side, however, if zeroing in on the exchanges operating honestly can move the needle with regulators and finally get an ETF approved, this bleak analysis might help spur the kind of adoption you’re hoping for. 从此我们至少可以学到两点. 首先, 真实的比特币交易市场其实远比我们日常所知的要小很多. 如果一定要深入探知主流交易量, 结果一定是令人失望的. 其次, 在另一方面, 如果以规范交易所诚信操作为守则, 最终促成监管方对ETF的批准, 这份分析报告或许可以帮助促进良性的交易. Data source: MIT review Edit & Translation: AI Analytics